Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme...
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BMC Medicine
2025
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| Rochtain ar líne: | https://repository.auw.edu.bd/handle/123456789/873 |
| _version_ | 1857449040983097344 |
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| author | Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir |
| author_facet | Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir |
| author_sort | Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir |
| collection | institutional Repository |
| description | Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among
the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet
targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United
Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and
epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates
are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall.
We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-
specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA.
Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic
(ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 coun‐
tries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5×5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typi‐
cally districts or counties) units.
Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked
in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and
sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups:
for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest
prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and
2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age
group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex
and age group.
Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention
and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more
targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA. |
| format | Article |
| id | 123456789-873 |
| institution | Asian University for Women |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | BMC Medicine |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | 123456789-8732026-02-18T06:15:24Z Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018 Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir HIV, Mapping, Africa, Geostatistics, Spatial statistics, HIV prevalence, Demographics Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex- specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 coun‐ tries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5×5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typi‐ cally districts or counties) units. Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA. 2025-07-31T06:09:35Z 2025-07-31T06:09:35Z 2022 Article https://repository.auw.edu.bd/handle/123456789/873 en application/pdf BMC Medicine |
| spellingShingle | HIV, Mapping, Africa, Geostatistics, Spatial statistics, HIV prevalence, Demographics Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018 |
| title | Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018 |
| title_full | Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018 |
| title_fullStr | Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018 |
| title_short | Mapping age‐ and sex‐specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub‐Saharan Africa, 2000–2018 |
| title_sort | mapping age and sex specific hiv prevalence in adults in sub saharan africa 2000 2018 |
| topic | HIV, Mapping, Africa, Geostatistics, Spatial statistics, HIV prevalence, Demographics |
| url | https://repository.auw.edu.bd/handle/123456789/873 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chowdhurymohiuddinahsanulkabir mappingageandsexspecifichivprevalenceinadultsinsubsaharanafrica20002018 |